The White House and most economists say the economy is humming along at a respectable pace, with GDP growing at a real annual rate of 2.5% to 3%.
But this episode of What’s Ahead warns: Don’t be complacent. There’s a better metric for gauging the condition of the economy. It’s called Gross Output (GO). Put aside the awful name. GO gives a far more thorough picture of the economy, and right now it’s spelling trouble. For example, when the economy was contracting in the first half of 2022, GO was correctly indicating that better days were ahead.
Why isn’t GO given proper prominence by the government? Because it goes against the prevailing economic dogma that consumers, not businesses, are key to prosperity. The opposite is the reality.
