The co-founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Mark Yusko is doubling down on his prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) will hit a six-figure price over the coming months.
Yusko says in a new CNBC interview that Bitcoin could triple in price from its current fair value or double in price from its post-halving fair value.
According to the veteran hedge funder, Bitcoin’s fair value is estimated based on the number of users and miners or its network effects.
“So we look at the fair value today from the Metcalfe’s Law model… that gives us around $50,000. The halving occurs in three weeks. What a halving does is it cuts the block rewards, the amount of money that’s given to the miners to secure the network. If those rewards were to get cut in half, as they do, many of the miners would struggle. So historically what has happened? The price rises, the fair value rises. So that would push it to $100,000.
But this time it’s a little different in that instead of just block rewards, we get transaction fees because of ordinals and inscriptions. So let’s say the fair value only goes to $75,000 this time. Then post-halving you get a lot of interest in the asset, a lot of people FOMO (fear of missing out) in and we normally go to about two times fair value in the cycle.
So in the last cycle fair value was $30,000, we got to as high as $69,000. This time, I think probably two times because there’s less leverage. So that gets us to $150,000.”
Bitcoin is trading at $70,882 at time of writing.
According to Yusko, Bitcoin could reach the peak for the bull cycle that will ensue around nine months after the halving.
“So the big move happens post-halving. So the halving occurs sometime between April 20th and April 21st most likely. So once that occurs then you start to get an increase in demand right from the [spot Bitcoin] exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other people interested. But the supply of new coins goes from 900 a day to 450.
Well, think about it… if there’s more demand than supply, price has to rise. So the price starts to rise. It starts to become more exponential or parabolic toward the end of the year, and historically, about nine months after the halving. So sometime toward Thanksgiving, Christmas we see the peak in price before the next bear market.”
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