The possibility that former President Donald Trump could win a second term has spurred China watchers to map out potential consequences for the world’s No. 2 economy: in particular, what happens if the Republican and his adjutants choose to launch another, more powerful trade war.

The likelihood of a new round of mercantilist measures only increased after Trump picked as his running mate JD Vance, a far-right US senator who has bluntly proclaimed, “I don’t like China.” Sarah Bianchi, chief strategist of international political affairs at Evercore ISI, said her assumption is that tariff increases, and other steps, will come “fast and furious” if Trump defeats President Joe Biden.