Topline
Americans lean toward Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris as the stronger option to lead the economy, according to polling released Friday, as the American economy sits at a potential inflection point heading into the election.
Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event Wednesday.
Key Facts
A New York Times and Siena College poll released Friday found 52% of respondents trusted Trump to lead the economy compared to 45% for Harris, outside of the sample’s 2.2 percentage-point margin of error but tighter than the 54%-41% split toward Trump on the question last month.
A Financial Times and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business joint survey out Thursday found 44% of voters favor Trump to shepherd the economy compared to Harris’ 43%, within the poll’s 3.3 percentage-point margin of error, but reversing a 44%-42% lead in Harris’ favor in the survey’s September edition.
The CNBC All-America Economic Survey also dropped Thursday found Trump holds a 13 percentage-point advantage among voters who consider inflation and the overall economy as their top issues this cycle.
Other major polls have shown Trump leading as the preferred candidate to broadly lead the economy, including a September AP-NORC survey which reported a 43% to 41% margin preferring Trump on the issue.
Though Harris has narrowed the edge on Trump on the economy compared to President Joe Biden, polling has suggested Americans strongly favor Trump in terms of the impact on their personal finances.
This week’s Financial Times survey revealed 45% of Americans believe Trump will leave them better off financially, compared to 37% for Harris, while the CNBC survey similar found a heavy tilt toward Trump in that regard, with 42% of respondents believed Trump would leave them better off financially, compared to 29% for Harris.
Contra
An Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll released Tuesday found a nearly even split for the candidates across several hot-button issues on the economy: Voters favored Harris 41% to 36% on housing costs, 42% to 40% on jobs and unemployment and 46% to 34% on middle class taxes, while respondents opted for Trump by a 42% to 40% margin in jobs and unemployment and a 40% to 38% split on tariffs.
Big Number
27%. That’s the proportion of voters who consider the economy their top issue in deciding their presidential choice, according to the NYT/Siena poll. That’s almost twice as much as the next most commonly named top issues, abortion and immigration at 15% apiece.
Tangent
As the Federal Reserve enacted the first interest rate cuts since 2020 and the stock market hits new highs, views of the economy improved, with a CBS News poll released last month finding 39% of Americans believe the country’s economic condition is good, up from 35% last month. The CBS survey found Harris has made gains among likely voters who consider the economy a top issue, as Trump’s lead over Harris among that demographic narrowed from 56% to 43% in August to 53% to 47%.
Key Background
Trump’s economic plan has largely focused on deregulation in the energy and financial industries, touting the much-better inflation during his presidency than Biden’s, and instituting significant tariffs on Chinese goods. The U.S. economy performed very well under both Trump and Biden by most metrics, with historically low unemployment, strong stock market performance and steady economic output growth occurring during both administrations, save for a 2020-21 global blip during the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic (see here for detailed data on how the economy fared under Biden and Trump). The president often has a less direct impact on the U.S. economy than public perception may suggest, considering the difficulty in implementing policies, the global nature of the economy and the fragile nature of the stock market, which ultimately relies on earnings growth for multinational corporations.
How Could Stocks React To Trump Or Harris Winning?
Though presidential impact on stock prices is often negligible in the long run, strategists suggest it’s likely that stocks in sectors like banking and oil production would get a boost from Trump, while companies which rely heavily on manufacturing in Taiwan (like semiconductor chip maker Nvidia), or on sales in China (like Apple), could be hurt due to Trump’s policy in the region.
