The weather has taken time to get the message, but spring appears to have sprung for the economy, both here and elsewhere in Europe. Although we must wait until May 10 for official confirmation, it will be a surprise if the UK economy did not return to growth in the first quarter of the year, and the evidence since then is that the recovery has gained momentum.

While waiting for the official data, economists tend to look at surveys, particularly those that form the basis of the purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which measures business-to-business activity.

The “flash” UK PMI for this month — so called because it is published ahead of the full version and based on partial data — showed a strong rise to