WASHINGTON, DC – MAY 22: Thomas Homan, acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, … [+]
Mass deportation of undocumented immigrants will have serious consequences for the United States economy and job market. Economists predict that large-scale deportations could cause a significant economic contraction.
A report from the American Immigration Council estimates that deporting one million undocumented immigrants per year could cost around $88 billion annually, totaling nearly $1 trillion over a decade. This includes the costs for arrests, detention, legal processing, and deportation logistics.
Although the U.S. immigration system is somewhat broken, immigrants are important to growing the labor force, which helps the overall economy. Immigrants have helped expand the labor supply, driving costs down, and also contributing to paying nearly $580 billion a year in taxes, according to the Joint Economic Committee.
Jobs Losses That May Not Be Easily Filled
A reduction in labor will cause higher wages, as there will be fewer workers in sectors such as agriculture and construction. However, wages might increase in these sectors due to the reduced labor supply. Some jobs might remain unfilled or lead to increased automation. There’s concerns over whether or not these jobs would be taken by the U.S.-born workers. Most people say that native Americans won’t want to work in grueling manual labor. In that case, employment will fall.
The impact would be felt in industries like agriculture, construction, and hospitality. With fewer workers, there may be labor shortages. This can contribute to a reduction in production, increased operational costs, and higher consumer prices. As prices rise, consumer spending might decrease. This leads to lower business revenue along with higher prices due to the shortages.
The Logistics Of Mass Deportations
In a 60 Minutes CBS News interview, Homan said “It’s not OK to enter a country illegally, which is a crime.” He added, “That’s what drives illegal immigration, when there’s no consequences.”
According to reporting by the BBC, there are about 11.3 million undocumented immigrants in the US. Searching, rounding them up and deporting them would create a huge logistical and financial challenge. There will be a big need for law enforcement, border control agents, and other government agencies.
Tom Homan, the “Border Czar” appointed by President Donald Trump, intends to vigorously pursue deportation efforts. The Trump administration aims to remove as many undocumented immigrants as possible. The initial primary targets for deportation include illegal alien gang members and those who engaged in violent activities.
Homan states that all undocumented immigrants, even those without criminal records, should be concerned about potential arrest. The Border Czar pledged to conduct what he describes as the “biggest deportation operation this country has ever seen,” focusing initially on those deemed to be “public safety threats” and “national security threats,” which includes individuals with criminal records or those considered threats to national security. For the first time in U.S. history, the U.S. government has employed military aircraft to repatriate migrants, which will now occur daily.
Homan acknowledges that not all undocumented migrants will be removed, as the success of the deportation plan depends on congressional funding. His approach might broaden over time and include undocumented immigrants without criminal histories.
There’s an expected increase in workplace raids, targeting both undocumented workers and their employers. The actions can potentially disrupt industries reliant on undocumented labor like agriculture, construction, and hospitality services. There could be “collateral arrests” where others present during operations get detained.
The Costs Will Be High
The cost of mass deportation would be astronomical, estimated between $114 billion and $303.7 billion. This expense would be compounded by the loss of tax contributions from immigrant households and the broader economic slowdown. Moreover, approximately one million immigrant entrepreneurs would be removed, disrupting local economic ecosystems and service industries.
The human and economic ripple effects would be extensive. Mixed-status households would see their incomes potentially halved, pushing many families into poverty. The housing market could become destabilized due to mortgage defaults, and overall consumer spending would decline dramatically.