“Our ship has entered very stormy unchartered waters,” said Elvira Nabiullina, the central bank’s governor. 

Comparing the Russian economy to a sick patient, she added: “What does high inflation mean? Like a high temperature in a person, it indicates health problems.”

However, these health problems are now becoming increasingly serious. 

Chris Weafer, founder of consultancy Macro Advisory in Russia, notes that the central bank now expects interest rates to stay “in the 18pc to 19.6pc band” in the second half of 2024. 

Rates in 2025 are expected to remain between 14 to 16pc in 2025, up from previous guidance of between 10pc and 12pc. 

In other words, Russia’s next move in rates is more likely to be up than down. 

“It implies that for the remainder of the year, the official rate will either stay flat at 18pc or could go up to 19pc or even 20pc as early as the next central bank meeting in September,” says Weafer.

He believes the Russian economy is entering a new phase of slower growth that puts the economy at “real risk of stagflation”.

“In the first stage, the economy was responding to a dramatic change after the introduction of sweeping Western sanctions” says Weafer, who notes how the economy shrank and currency plunged after the invasion in February 2022.

At the time, the country was partly able to cope by selling discount oil to countries like China and India.

Oil and gas revenues hit $80bn (£62.7bn) in the first seven months of the year, according to Russia’s finance ministry,  with Putin using these revenues to finance massive increases in public spending, which have helped to prop up growth.

However, Weafer says the temporary boost is now fading as interest rates and economic reality start to bite. 

“The latest data for Russia suggests the period of post-sanction recovery is gradually coming to an end,” he says. 

“That is accompanied by an exhaustion or weakening of previous growth drivers as the government becomes more concerned about the need to keep its books balanced.”