Bernstein—a major asset manager with $725 billion in assets—predicts that Bitcoin’s price could reach $1 million by 2033, with a stopover at $200,000 as early as next year.

The bullish prediction comes after Bernstein initiated coverage on software developer MicroStrategy, known as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with an “outperform” rating.

MicroStrategy currently holds approximately 1.1% of the global Bitcoin supply, valued at around $14.5 billion as of this writing.

Over the past four years, the company has transitioned from an obscure software firm to one of the trailblazers in the cryptocurrency space, according to a Bernstein research report.

Zooming out

Bernstein’s coverage of MicroStrategy is not so much an investment in MicroStrategy’s fundamentals as it is a “leveraged” bet on bitcoin. “MicroStrategy positions itself as an active leveraged bitcoin strategy versus passive spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs),” the report said.

Bernstein’s optimistic outlook on Bitcoin’s price banks on the unprecedented demand from spot ETFs and the limited supply of the cryptocurrency—which could drive Bitcoin to $500,000 by 2029, an increase from their previous estimate of $150,000 for 2025.

According to Bernstein, MicroStrategy’s long-term convertible debt strategy is their bet to capitalize on potential Bitcoin gains while minimizing the risk of liquidation of its cryptocurrency holdings.

The report also mentioned that the company has proposed a $500 million debt sale of convertible notes to further augment its Bitcoin holdings.

Looking ahead

The optimistic long-term Bitcoin outlook is getting a boost as institutions increasingly embrace the cryptocurrency.

The world’s largest asset managers, including BlackRock and Fidelity, are now offering easy access to Bitcoin for individual investors—thanks partly to spot Bitcoin ETFs.

(A Bitcoin spot ETF is a type of investment fund that tracks the price of Bitcoin directly. It allows investors to buy shares that represent ownership of Bitcoin itself, rather than investing indirectly through futures or other financial products.)

According to Bernstein, these newfound “mainstream” inflows are what’s driving Bitcoin’s recent price gains.

Analysts believe MicroStrategy will keep its edge as the top publicly traded Bitcoin holder and an indirect, leveraged bet on Bitcoin’s price. However, its advantage over spot ETFs is yet to be seen.

“MicroStrategy shares continue to offer investors looking to gain exposure to Bitcoin a number of important benefits, in our opinion, relative to spot ETPs,” TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza said.

“Even with spot Bitcoin ETPs now serving as potential substitutes, a significant premium [on Bitcoin] will continue to be justified, we believe.”